Are We Alone in the Universe? – 2 hr. class
In-Person – Friday 10:10 am – 12:10 pm
Sept. 27, Oct. 18, 25, Nov. 1, 8, 15, 22, Dec. 6
No Class on Oct. 4, 11 and Nov. 29
The first serious attempt to formulate a science-based answer to the above question was promulgated by Frank Drake, at the first SETI conference in 1961. The Drake equation was a very simple set of terms that required seven relatively straightforward inputs. They are:
1 – The current rate of star formation in our galaxy.
2 – Percentage of stars that have at least one planet.
3 – Percentage Earth-like planets. (ELP).
4 – Percentage of ELP where life does emerge.
5 – Percentage of ELP + Life = Intelligence
6 – Percentage of #5 develop interstellar communications.
7 – Length of time #6 sends signals into space.
Using Drake’s original inputs, the equation yielded an answer of 55,000,000 civilizations. Several years later Enrico Fermi, an émigré from Italian Fascism was discussing Drake’s estimate and remarked Well if there ARE that many why don’t we see them? He then, with the help of his three lunch friends, posited ten reasons no aliens were immediately visible. While this at first seemed whimsical and arbitrary, the Equation and Paradoxes would spark countless debates. Together they triggered critical thinking that would redefine astronomy and astrophysics. This is that story.
- Week 1: Are We Alone? The Drake Equation – The Drake Equation was the first attempt to quantify the probability of intelligent life beyond our Solar System. Its promulgation triggered a wide-ranging holistic inquiry which is still ongoing over 60 years later.
- Week 2: The Search for Habitable Exoplanets – How many planets can support life? Can we find, analyze and categorize these potential life rafts in the sea of the Milky Way Galaxy?
- Week 3: The Fermi Paradoxes – The original Drake Equation predicted the existence of 55 million intelligent alien civilizations. Enrico Fermi asked If that is true, where are they? Well, let’s find out!
- Week 4: The Fermi Paradoxes – Set #1 Our Rare Earth – We may be alone if the conditions on Earth and in its immediate astronomical neighborhoods are rare or even extremely rare! We examine these conditions and others that have allowed humans to emerge.
- Week 5: The Fermi Paradoxes – Set #2 The Great Filters Hypothesis – Great Filters may be the simplest set of factors restricting the development of alien civilizations across the Milky Way. What are they and how can we avoid them?
- Week 6: The Fermi Paradoxes – Set #3 Time & Distances Are Too Great – Cosmic distances are immense. Even when moving nearly the speed of light we may never discover another civilization. Why are these two barriers potentially so effective?
- Week 7: The Fermi Paradoxes – Set #4 The Great Silence Hypothesis – Silence is golden states an age-old proverb. Could silence, either imposed, unintended, or voluntary stand in the way of contact with alien civilizations? The value of silence may be golden in unexpected ways.
- Week 8: The Challenges to Interstellar Travel – The challenges of interstellar travel are daunting in so many ways. But are they insurmountable? One approach entitled “A Man, a Can, and a Plan” will provide us with a comprehensive picture of what space travel may look like.
Bill Preinitz grew up in Chicago and has been a Weston resident for the last 44 years. He currently lectures on military and general history, archeology, anthropology, astronomy/astrophysics, and paleontology. He attended Northern Illinois University at DeKalb, graduating with a BS in Finance. Immediately after graduation he served in the U.S. Army. Returning to civilian life, he completed an MBA with a specialty in operations research and computer simulation. He later moved to NYC and began a career on Wall Street in the Investment Banking industry in 1980. He retired in 2008 and published two books through Wiley & Sons, on financial analytics and modeling.